Canada’s population growth fell to a century low, and the population under 65 shrank. Self storage is not losing the people who rent it.
Strip Statistics Canada’s September population release down to two numbers and the story for self storage changes. Between October 2024 and July 2026, Canada lost 354,015 study permit holders, counting study-only and work-and-study permits together. In the year to July 1, 2026, it gained 269,937 people aged 65 and over. The first group was almost never a storage customer. The second is arriving at the age when a lifetime of possessions has to go somewhere.
The headline those two numbers sit under is weak. Canada grew by 189,425 people in the year to July 1, 2026, or 0.5 percent, the lowest growth rate since 1915/1916 and the smallest absolute increase since 1944/1945, and the population under 65 shrank. A recent JBW piece, Flying Blind, made the case that Canada has no consumer demand study to tell anyone what that means for storage. This piece works with the data that does exist: who left, who is still arriving, and when each group reaches the rent roll.
The September 23 revisions, which added back temporary residents whose permit extensions had not yet reached the data, erased the three quarterly declines the preliminary series had shown, but not the stall. The fourth quarter of 2025 still shows a drop of 7,225 people, the first quarter of 2026 a gain of 1,366, and the second quarter’s 80,343 was the weakest spring quarter since 2020. In the first quarter, births exceeded deaths by 47 people.
For an industry that has spent a decade explaining itself with population growth, that is an uncomfortable set of facts. The demand model most storage investors carry in their heads is simple: more people, more households, more possessions, more units. Run it on a population that has stopped growing and the answer writes itself.
That answer is wrong, or at least badly timed, for two reasons. The first is who actually left. The second is who is still arriving at the moment in life when a storage unit gets rented. Neither shows up in the headline number, and both matter more than it does.
What happened to the population
The stall is almost entirely a temporary resident story. The stock of non-permanent residents peaked at 2,984,285 on October 1, 2024, or 7.2 percent of the population, and stood at 2,779,774 on July 1, 2026, or 6.7 percent. The drop of 154,614 over the year was the largest since comparable records began in 1971/1972, and it was concentrated in one group: study permit holders fell by 140,827 and work-and-study permit holders by 81,163, while work permit holders and asylum claimants both increased.
Permanent admissions are lower but steadier. Statistics Canada counts 368,224 immigrants in the year to July 1, 2026, the fourth straight annual decline and the first time below 400,000 since 2021/2022, under a levels plan that targets 380,000 a year through 2028. IRCC’s monthly data, now available through July, show 222,625 admissions in the first seven months of 2026, down 9.7 percent from 246,580 a year earlier. The trend inside the year matters more than the total: January’s 24,220 was the low, and July’s 40,335 was the highest single month since July 2024. At the current pace, 2026 lands close to the 380,000 target.
The year’s growth was all at the top of the age pyramid. The population aged 65 and over rose by 269,937 to 8,378,381, or 20.0 percent of the total, while the population aged 15 to 64 fell by 78,034 and the number of people in their 20s dropped by 154,973, or 2.8 percent. Canada added 189,000 people and 270,000 seniors. Everyone under 65, taken together, shrank.
The West is not one market here. Alberta grew 1.5 percent in the year to July 1, 2026, the fastest of any province, and again drew the largest net inflow from other provinces, 5,893 people in the second quarter alone. British Columbia grew 0.1 percent, the slowest of any province, but not because people are leaving it; BC has posted net interprovincial gains for five straight quarters. Its stall is temporary residents. Saskatchewan grew 1.0 percent and Manitoba 0.6 percent, both faster than the country.
Who actually left
Look at who left. Between the October 2024 peak and July 1, 2026, the temporary resident count fell by 204,511, and the composition is the point. Study-permit-only holders fell by 238,950, from 638,083 to 399,133, and work-and-study permit holders by 115,065, while work-permit-only holders rose by 62,135 and asylum claimants and protected persons by 100,449. The entire net loss, and more, was students. Temporary residents were 63 percent aged 15 to 34 in mid-2025. At the 2021 Census, 59 percent rented apartments, 33 percent lived in crowded housing, 30 percent lived with roommates and 33 percent commuted by transit, against 5 percent of non-immigrants. International students with employment income earned a median of about $9,500 a year.
That is not a storage customer. It is a person who arrived with two suitcases, shared a two-bedroom with three others, and left the same way.
The pattern holds for permanent residents in their first years, and two Statistics Canada studies released this year put numbers on it. The first, published in June, tracks homeownership by years since admission. In British Columbia, immigrants own their home at a rate of 8.2 percent in year one, 25.0 percent in year three and 37.5 percent in year five, against 43.3 percent for the Canadian-born. Alberta runs 8.3, 23.4 and 39.7 percent against 51.9. Manitoba runs 13.4, 32.0 and 47.9 percent against 50.0. Economic-class immigrants reach Canadian-born ownership rates by their fifth year.
The second study, published in April, measures how many dwellings immigrants occupy. Permanent residents who came directly to Canada occupy 203 dwellings per 1,000 people at admission (14 owned, 189 rented), 258 by year five and 324 by year ten. The national figure is roughly 405. A companion paper shows persons per dwelling falling from about 3.1 to 2.2 over 20 years as children move out and extended families split into separate households.
Add means. Recent immigrant families, in Canada nine years or less with a main earner aged 25 to 44, have a median net worth of $132,300 against $293,900 for comparable Canadian-born families, and the median entry wage for 2022 admissions was $39,800 against a Canadian median of $47,650.
First home purchase, household splitting, the slow accumulation of furniture, vehicles and children’s belongings: these are the events that put someone in a storage unit, and they cluster in years three to ten after arrival, not years one to five. The people who left in 2025 had not reached them. Most were never going to.
Two caveats. No survey anywhere measures storage use by immigrant status or years since arrival; the American demand study tabulates race and ethnicity but not nativity, so this argument rests on housing, wealth and household data rather than rent rolls. And mobility cuts the other way: 44 percent of temporary residents and 30 percent of recent immigrants moved in the year before the 2021 Census, against 11 percent of non-immigrants, and moving is the single largest storage trigger. Moving between shared apartments with few possessions rarely needs a unit, but that is an argument, not a measurement.
The cohort still arriving
Now count the other direction. Canada admitted 2,324,945 permanent residents between 2019 and 2024: 341,000 in 2019, 185,000 in the pandemic year, then 406,000, 438,000, 472,000 and 484,000. Between 35 and 37 percent landed in the four Western provinces, Alberta and BC roughly 13 percent each. Those 2.3 million people are now two to seven years in. They are in the window where ownership goes from 8 percent to 40 percent and households split. The cut in admissions, to 393,780 in calendar 2025, thins that pipeline from about 2028 onward. It does nothing to it now.
The West is holding its share of the newer arrivals. The four Western provinces took 80,685 admissions from January to July 2026, 36.2 percent of the national total, and their intake fell 5.0 percent from a year earlier against 9.7 percent nationally. Saskatchewan and Manitoba were each up about 6 percent, Alberta was down 3.8 percent and British Columbia down 13.3 percent.
The second cohort
The other argument circulating in the industry is that seniors will fill the gap, and it usually arrives wrapped in a claim that deaths have reversed since COVID. Be careful with that one. Deaths peaked at 338,217 in 2022 and fell to 327,546 in 2023 and 326,779 in 2024, but the entire decline is COVID-19 deaths falling from 19,948 to 5,056. The 2024 total is still 14 percent above 2019, because the population aged 75 and over is about a quarter larger, and it will keep rising as the boomers age. Deaths are not falling. Provisional 2025 figures are up slightly.
What did reverse is the rate. Every senior age band died at a lower rate in 2024 than in 2019: 86.9 per 1,000 at ages 85 to 89 against 89.5. Life expectancy at 65 reached 21.15 years in 2024, above the pre-pandemic 20.99 and the highest in Statistics Canada’s series. And the pandemic did not thin the cohort ahead of the wave: a January 2026 study in JAMA Network Open found no significant mortality displacement in Canada, with 2024 excess deaths at minus three per 100,000. Seniors are living longer than they ever have, and the cohort behind them is the largest Canada has produced.
The size of that wave is the point. Canada had 2.05 million people aged 80 and over on July 1, 2026, up 4.6 percent in a year. About 310,000 Canadians were 79 that day and turn 80 within the year, up from 265,000 a year earlier and 215,000 five years earlier; the leading edge of the boom is arriving now, and the medium projection puts the annual figure at 324,000 by 2030. The 80-plus population reaches 2.51 million by 2030 and 3.76 million by 2040. The 85-plus population, 991,000 today, doubles by 2040. BC is already 21.1 percent seniors; Parksville is 47 percent, Penticton and Salmon Arm 31 percent, Victoria 23 percent. Alberta is 16.0 percent today, but its 85-plus population grows 3.7 times by 2050, the fastest in the West.
Where the industry gets the seniors story right is the transition. At the 2021 Census, 1.6 percent of people aged 65 to 74 lived in a nursing home or seniors’ residence. At 75 to 84 it was 6.2 percent. At 85 and over it was 27.6 percent, and within that band it climbs from 20.5 percent at 85 to 89 to 36 percent at 90 to 94. Two-thirds of households headed by someone 85 or older still own their home. Fifty-seven percent of Canadians 65 and over say they plan to stay put and 16 percent intend to downsize; among those 77 and over who did move, health and housing cost were the reasons named most. The move is late, involuntary and abrupt. A house that took 40 years to fill is emptied in a month, and the contents go to a unit while a family decides.
The receiving side is full. Chartwell and Sienna, the two largest listed retirement operators, both reported occupancy above 94 percent in the second quarter of 2026, and Sienna puts the need at roughly 200,000 seniors’ suites by 2035 against fewer than 10,000 under construction. BC admitted 10,245 people to long-term care in 2024/25 with 7,029 waiting, and Ontario’s wait list exceeds 50,000.
Who left, and who is arriving at the storage trigger
| Cohort | Size | Storage-relevant profile | When it reaches the rent roll |
|---|---|---|---|
| Temporary residents who left, Oct 2024 to Jul 2026 | 204,511 fewer after revision; study permits down 354,015, work permits and asylum claimants up 162,584 | 63% aged 15 to 34; 59% rent apartments; 33% in crowded housing; 30% with roommates; 33% commute by transit | Largely never. A pre-customer profile; the departure is close to a demand non-event |
| Permanent residents admitted 2019 to 2024 | 2,324,945; 35 to 37% landed in BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba | Ownership 8% in year one, about 40% by year five; dwellings per 1,000 rise from 203 at admission to 324 by year ten | Years three to ten after admission, so 2022 through about 2034; the pipeline thins from 2028 as the 2025 cut works through |
| Canadians turning 80 | 310,000 a year now (265,000 a year ago, 215,000 five years ago), 324,000 by 2030; 80+ population 2.05M, 2.51M by 2030, 3.76M by 2040 | Residence or care-home entry 3.8% at 75 to 79, 9.7% at 80 to 84, 20.5% at 85 to 89; two-thirds of 85+ households still own | Now, compounding through 2040; long-duration, low-churn units concentrated in the oldest markets |
What the market data say
Nothing in the operating data settles this. The Greater Toronto Area, where Ontario has lost 134,000 temporary residents since the peak, including 226,000 study-related permit holders, was the soft market: SmartStop’s GTA same-store revenue grew 0.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025 and its occupancy was down 60 basis points by mid-2026, and StorTrack had Canadian walk-in rates down 1.7 percent in December. Toronto is also the most oversupplied market in the country, so the signal is confounded. StorageVault posted its 45th consecutive quarter of same-store growth through the stall, 3.9 percent in the second quarter of 2026, which fits the lag argument but is confounded by pricing and acquisitions. The analyst consensus at Yardi Matrix, Marcus & Millichap and Avison Young still ties storage demand directly to immigration.
Our view is that the raw population count is the wrong variable. The right ones are households in years three to ten after admission, and people crossing 80.
What it means for investors
Do not underwrite the headline in either direction. The population stall is not a demand collapse, and aging is not a rescue that replaces immigration one for one. The immigrant pipeline thins from 2028 and the 80-plus wave compounds through 2040, so the crossing years, roughly 2028 to 2031, deserve explicit treatment in any ten-year hold.
Expect the two cohorts to behave differently in the rent roll. The immigrant-vintage customer is a mover and a first-time buyer: high volume, moderate duration, price-sensitive, concentrated in Alberta and suburban BC where the 2019 to 2024 landings went. The senior customer is the opposite: low volume, long duration, low churn. Extra Space reports that customers who rent for lack of space rather than a move stay at least twice as long; in the United Kingdom, where the customer base skews older, 39 percent of customers have stored for more than three years. Revenue management that treats an 82-year-old’s unit like a 28-year-old’s will either leave money on the table or push out a tenant who would have stayed a decade.
Product follows. On Vancouver Island and in the Okanagan the tailwind is now, and it favours small units, ground-floor access, climate control and a manager who will help with a dolly. In Alberta the immigrant-vintage tailwind is now and the aging tailwind is a 2030s story; underwrite them in that order. In submarkets built around campuses and downtown rental towers, the departed students were never customers, but they were the density that supported traffic and rate; 36 to 42 month lease-ups should be the base case for new supply there.
Two checkpoints are close. The federal 2027 to 2029 immigration levels plan is due in early November and will set how quickly the permanent resident pipeline thins after 2028. Statistics Canada’s estimates to October 1, 2026 follow in December and will show whether the student outflow has run its course.
The September revisions took the decline out of the headline and left the stall in it: growth of 0.5 percent, the lowest in 110 years, with the loss in the 20s and the gain over 65. Read past it. The customers self storage depends on are still here, and the largest cohort of them is only beginning to arrive.
Talk to JBW
If you own a facility in a market where this customer mix is shifting, from a campus submarket to a retirement town, JBW Commercial prepares confidential Broker’s Opinions of Value grounded in the customer base you actually have, not the headline. For buyers, sellers and lenders, our transaction audit services verify the store before closing: a physical site inspection and a rent roll verification covering each unit’s existence, size, condition, occupancy and rate paid, delivered as a reconciled rent roll and condition report. Contact Patrick Wood at pat@jbwcommercial.com or 250-589-0034.
Data sources: Statistics Canada (population estimates by age and gender and quarterly estimates to July 1, 2026, released September 23, 2026, with revisions back to 2021; Deaths, 2024, released January 13, 2026; Population Projections 2025 to 2075; Census 2021; Survey of Financial Security 2023; Longitudinal Immigration Database, December 2025; The homeownership trajectories of recent immigrants, June 2026; Zhang and Hou, housing use framework, April 2026), IRCC (permanent resident admissions by province, January 2015 to July 2026, and the 2026 to 2028 levels plan), Chen et al. in JAMA Network Open (January 2026), Canadian Institute for Health Information, Office of the Seniors Advocate of British Columbia, Ontario Long Term Care Association, Re/Max 2026 poll, Chartwell, Sienna, SmartStop, StorageVault and Extra Space Q2 2026 reports, StorTrack, and the SSA UK annual report 2026. Cohort figures are as of July 1, 2026. All dollar figures Canadian.